West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2023 Season – July Update – Mali

Sub Levels



• The region enters the mid-season from July to September, ending the early stages of the rainy season by the end of June. So far, her 2023 wet season conditions in West Africa mirror the pattern observed in late May, with overall mixed conditions across the region. Although part of the central region of all of western Niger, eastern Burkina Faso straddles northern Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia, as well as northwestern Senegal, southwestern Mauritania, northwestern Nigeria, and the central and southern coastal areas. However, precipitation was below-normal, while seasonal rainfall was above-normal in the rest of West Africa. Moderate rainfall deficiencies were recorded in these regions during this period. These shortages, especially in the Sahel region, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the growing season, which usually begins a little later (usually planting around July), but there is a need to closely monitor the progress of rainfall in these areas. There is

• Sub-average vegetation conditions across large areas from central Cameroon to northern Nigeria, northern Benin, Burkina Faso, western Mali and southern Senegal. The lack of vegetation is particularly pronounced in western Mali, eastern Gambia and southern Senegal. On the other hand, the eastern part of the region, which straddles southeastern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, far north Cameroon and Chad, has significantly above average vegetation. Better than normal vegetation conditions are observed in some areas of central Mali. Water resources are in good condition in most parts of the Sahel and have improved since late May. However, in southern Mauritania, northern Senegal, the far west of central-western Mali, parts of eastern Burkina Faso and southeastern Niger, water points were dry or almost dry at the end of June.

• Short-term forecasts indicate that by late July (20 July 2023), improved rainfall is likely to be observed in the West African region. On the other hand, the southeastern part of the region (Central African Republic, southern Cameroon, southeastern Nigeria) and the far western part of the region (Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, western Mali) are likely to benefit more favorably. Southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, northern Ghana, semi-eastern Niger, northern Mali, northern Chad, northeastern Nigeria, and northern Cameroon may experience drier-than-normal conditions. This improvement in rainfall may mitigate the impact early in the season. Prevents desiccation and provides more favorable conditions for the start of the growing season.

• PRESASS Seasonal Forecast for 2022 shows average to average More seasonal precipitation is expected. Coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea are expected to receive average to below-average rainfall, which will bring good crop yields in the Sahel Belt, but could also increase the risk of flooding in some areas. It could be exacerbated by the ongoing El Niño event, which is expected to occur 82% of the time from May to July and at least 90% of the time until February 2024. As a result, rainfall patterns in West Africa may change. This is associated with above-average rainfall across the Sahel region during July and August.

• Flood Preparedness Initiatives: Highlights potential flood risks in Management Level 2 areas in watersheds where normal to above-normal river levels are expected in 2023: (1) medium or high flood risk; An administrative region is located in the river basin beyond it. Mean predicted river water levels in the Gambia Basin, Whaleme Basin (a tributary of Senegal), the Niger Inland Delta in Mali, the Middle Niger River, the Komaduguu Yobe River (Nigeria), the Middle Chari Basin, and the Lower Chari Rogone Basin (2) Upper Niger River Basin (Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali), flood-risk administrative areas located in river basins with average to above-average projected river water levels in Upper Chari Basin, Lower Niger Basin, Baffin and Bakyoe Subbasins (Senegal Basin), Mono (Togo) and Benin) and Ouémé (Benin) basins, and the upper and western Volta Basin (managed 2 areas monitored).

• Areas monitored: Average to below average in southwestern Cameroon, southern Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia from April to June 2023; Seasonal rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea coastal region is below average. Countries (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Cameroon, June-August 2023.

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