AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: RBNZ Spotlight

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A busy Wednesday for NZD/USD. Q1 New Zealand retail sales will soon be the focus. Economists expect him to fall by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, compared to a modest increase of 0.2% in the first quarter. While the numbers will be the focus, the focus will be on the RBNZ interest rate decision, monetary policy statement and press conference.

Economists expect the RBNZ to raise rates by 25 basis points this morning. A 25 basis point increase would give statements and press conferences even more weight. It is unclear whether the US debt ceiling crisis will force the RBNZ to hold out again this morning.

However, no economic indicators will affect the AUD/USD. Lacking statistics, market risk sentiment will be unable to provide direction. Fed chit-chat and news related to the US debt ceiling will be of interest.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also plans to change policy later today, given the growing threat of a U.S. default, investors said. But with no U.S. economic data to distract investors, oil inventories should be considered.

AUD/USD Price Movement

This morning the AUD/USD rose 0.02% to $0.66103. The day got off to a mixed start, with the AUD/USD pair falling to early lows of $0.66077 before rallying to highs of $0.66116.

AUDUSD 240523 Daily Chart

technical indicator

Resistance and support levels

AUD/USD needs to cross the $0.6626 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.6645. A return to $0.6630 could prove to be a bullish trade. But the news about the debt ceiling should back up debt relief.

For a breakout session, Australia is likely to test resistance at Tuesday’s high of $0.66619, but fall short of the second major resistance (R2) of $0.6681. The third major resistance (R3) is at $0.6735.

If the pivot fails, the first major support level (S1) remains at $0.6590. However, unless risk-off selling occurs, the AUD/USD pair should avoid breaking below $0.6550. The second major support level (S2) of $0.6571 should cap the downside.

The third major support level (S3) is at $0.6517.

AUDUSD 240523 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMA and the 4-hour chart, the EMA is sending a bearish signal. AUD/USD has broken below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66573. The 50-day EMA has retreated from the 100-day EMA and the 100-day EMA has retreated from the 200-day EMA, sending a bearish signal.

Once the AUD/USD crosses R1 ($0.6645) and the 50-day EMA ($0.66573), it will provide support at the 100-day EMA ($0.66723). However, if the 50-day EMA ($0.66573) fails, S1 ($0.6590) will remain in view. AUD/USD move above the 50-day EMA will send a bullish signal.

AUDUSD 240523 4 Hour Chart

NZD/USD Price Fluctuation

NZD/USD fell 0.02% to $0.62462 this morning. The day got off to a mixed start, with the NZD/USD falling to early lows of $0.62365 before rallying to highs of $0.62480.

NZDUSD 240523 Daily Chart

technical indicator

Resistance and support levels

NZD/USD needs to cross the $0.6261 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.6289. A return to $0.6250 will signal a bull market. But US debt ceiling news and RBNZ need to support session breakout.

For a breakout session, the kiwi is likely to test resistance at Tuesday’s high of $0.63025, but fall short of the second major resistance (R2) of $0.6330. The third major resistance (R3) is at $0.6399.

If the pivot fails, the first major support level (S1) remains at $0.6220. However, the NZD/USD should avoid below $0.62 and the second major support level (S2) at $0.6192 unless RBNZ-led selling occurs.

The third major support level (S3) is at $0.6124.

NZDUSD 240523 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMA and the 4-hour chart, the EMA turned bearish. The NZD/USD has broken below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.62549. The 50-day EMA approached the 100-day EMA, where he narrowed to the 200-day EMA, sending a bearish signal.

Once the NZD/USD crosses the 100-day ($0.62549) and 50-day ($0.62619) EMAs, the bulls will find a rise at R1 ($0.6289) and Tuesday’s highs of $0.63025. However, S1 ($0.6220) can occur once the 200-day EMA ($0.62445) is crossed. A breakout of the 50-day EMA will send a bullish signal.

NZDUSD 240523 4-hour chart



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