5 charts to see if car sales are back to pre-pandemic levels

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From supply chain disruptions to chip shortages, rising raw material costs to factory workforce crises, the pandemic has posed challenges to the auto industry. The fiscal year that just ended was the first full year to feel a degree of normality. However, according to data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), sales of two-wheelers fell below pre-COVID-19 2019-2020, even as passenger car retail sales hit a record high. fell below The surge in sales during the festival season in October and November also didn’t quite live up to expectations. Auto sales highlights for 2022-2023 include:

From supply chain disruptions to chip shortages, rising raw material costs to factory workforce crises, the pandemic has posed challenges to the auto industry. The fiscal year that just ended was the first full year to feel a degree of normality. However, according to data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), sales of two-wheelers fell below pre-COVID-19 2019-2020, even as passenger car retail sales hit a record high. fell below The surge in sales during the festival season in October and November also didn’t quite live up to expectations. Auto sales highlights for 2022-2023 include:

K-shaped recovery

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Auto sales will grow strongly by 21% from 2022 to 2023, with base effects driving double-digit increases in most segments. However, overall sales of 22.2 million units are still lower than 2019-20, the last year before COVID-19, according to a Mint analysis of the Department of Transportation’s vehicle registration database. Compared to 2019-20, only four-wheelers and tractors registered a recovery.

Four-wheel vehicle registrations totaled 3.5 million, up from 2.8 million four years ago. However, two-wheelers serving the large middle-class population fell by 16% from 2019 to 2020, an average annual decline of nearly 6%, a new wave of unequal recovery across economic classes. showing signs. This segment accounted for almost three-quarters of all vehicles sold in India, which contributed significantly to the overall decline. (In fact, that percentage dropped dramatically from his 78% to his 72% in four years.)

Meanwhile, tractor sales, a leading indicator of the rural economy, surpassed 2019-2020 levels.

Recovery is slowing nationwide. Of the 34 states and union territories tracked in the Center’s Vahan database, only a few recorded a full recovery to 2019-20 levels in 2022-23, according to state-level analysis. It was 10 states.

Among the major markets, only Assam, Delhi, Maharashtra and Karnataka recorded growth in vehicle sales from 2019-20 to 2022-23. In those states, his three-year average annual growth rate during that time ranged from 0-3%. (Nationally, annual growth was negative 3.2% during this period.) Only Ladakh and Manipur reported annual growth rates above 10%.

Meanwhile, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal saw the biggest declines in sales, with annual declines of 7% to 11% from pre-pandemic levels. Gujarat, one of India’s most industrialized states, experienced somewhat flat sales from 2019 to 2020.

A big success story for 2022-23 was the electric vehicle (EV) segment. A record 1.1 million EVs were sold in the same year, fueled by government subsidies that boosted EV adoption and the growth of EV-friendly infrastructure. The two-wheeler sector will primarily drive EV sales growth in 2022-2023, accounting for more than 60% of the 1.1 million vehicles purchased. This represents approximately 2.8 times the reported sales in 2021-22 and 27 times the sales in 2019-20. Three-wheelers accounted for more than one-third of total sales, while the remaining four-wheelers and electric buses accounted for 4% of total sales. The mix between segments has changed over the years, with just 19% of all EV registrations in 2018-19 being two-wheelers and 79% three-wheelers. EVs accounted for only 5.3% of all vehicle registrations, but this was the largest ever.

The three-wheeler category, which accounts for the majority of short-haul public transport, will see nearly 768,000 units sold in 2022-23, up 85% year-on-year. According to the FADA annual report released last week, electrification in this category is largely driven by the electric rickshaw sector, reaching 52%, due not only to alternative fuels and government subsidies, but also to the availability of funding. It is said that it is due to

About 375,000 electric rickshaws were registered this year, a 114% increase over the previous year. Uttar Pradesh has the most registrations, with Bihar and Assam a distant second and third respectively. But after adjusting for population, Chandigarh and Assam added the most electric rickshaws last year, followed by Delhi and Uttarakhand. North Indian states such as Punjab and Haryana also had a high adoption rate of electric rickshaws. However, according to the Mint’s calculations, there are less than 50 electric rickshaws per million population in large state economies such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and West Bengal.

The pandemic has brought significant changes to consumer habits and behaviors. The preference for affordable personal mobility is increasing sales in the entry-level vehicle category, while increasing demand for luxury vehicles. As a result of the changing consumption patterns, the market share of the top five Indian automobile companies in the passenger vehicle sector has also changed.

Maruti Suzuki’s market share has been slowly declining, falling from about 48% in 2019-20 to 41% in 2022-23, according to the FADA report. Still, it maintains the top position by far. Domestic automaker Tata Motors has expanded its market share to 13% from nearly 6% in 2019-2020. However, in terms of rankings, the company had the third largest market share, just behind Hyundai Motor, which also fell from 17% to less than 15%. Kia Motors increased to 6.4% from 2.3% in 2019-2020.



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